Modelling tasks

For South Westphalia (SWF) the following domains were modelled and conclusions introduced:

• Mitigation
  • Transport
  • Energy demand and energy supply
• Adaptation
  • Climate-resilient forests
• Land use
  • CO2 storage capabilities, hydrology

Observations and conclusions

Transport:

• Effectiveness of Measures Varies Moderately

Pricing measures such as road usage fees have a stronger impact on reducing car use than urban design or planning approaches. While public transport usage increases more significantly through car pricing measures than through network improvements, enhancements in peri-urban areas remain important and can still drive a noticeable modal shift.

• Synergy is Key

Combined "all-measures" scenarios significantly reduce car use, demonstrating the compounding effects of integrated policy bundles. Direct CO₂ emissions are primarily reduced through fleet electrification, followed by pricing measures, parking management, and public transport improvements.

• Not All Green Measures Reduce Car Use

Fleet electrification can trigger a rebound effect, increasing car usage (and energy demand) despite environmental improvements. Similarly, incentives for carpooling may also lead to minor rebound effects, as drivers might cover more kilometers.

Energy - overall observation:

• Dependence on National Electricity Prices

The pathway for clean energy transformation and the installed capacity of local technologies are highly dependent on national electricity prices.

• Strong Potential for Wind and Solar Integration

SWF has strong potential to build a robust and cost-efficient energy sector based on wind and solar power, supported by close integration with the national grid to ensure a reliable energy balance.

• System Stability and Analytical Scope

Even with 20% higher summer peak loads (~300 MW) in the heat wave scenario, the system remains stable due to strong generation capacity and grid integration. The analyses consider two individual weather years (normal year, heat wave); a year with a "Dunkelflaute" (dark lull) was not included.

Energy sectors in more detail:

1. Electricity

• Rising Electricity Demand: Electricity demand is increasing due to the expanded use of heat pumps and electric boilers in district heating, as well as hydrogen applications.
• Renewable Energy Potential and Generation: Installed electricity generation capacity remains similar in both scenarios. Local renewable energy potential is high, particularly for:
  • PV: 12,505 MW potential, with 7,003 MW installed by 2050 (56%) – a balanced installation between rooftop and ground-mounted PV is recommended.
  • Wind: 3,250 MW potential, fully realized by 2050 (100%).
  • These technologies significantly contribute to local energy generation. In the heat wave (HW) scenario, weather conditions reduce PV and wind power generation, leading to lower overall electricity production, which is offset by higher grid imports.
• Energy Balance
  • NY 2050 Scenario: Slightly positive balance (101% self-sufficiency rate) – exports exceed imports by 220 GWh.
  • HW 2050 Scenario: Negative balance (91% self-sufficiency rate) – imports exceed exports by 1,883 GWh.

2. District Heating

• Strong Electrification by 2050: By 2050, the district heating sector is heavily electrified, relying on electric boilers and heat pumps.
• Technology Mix and Price-Dependent Operation: Biomass CHP and heat pumps are the main technologies, while electric boilers cover peak demand and waste CHP provides base load. Heat pumps and electric boilers follow national electricity prices, operating primarily when prices are low. Conversely, biomass and waste CHP are mainly used when electricity prices are high.
• Seasonal Independence and Capacity Needs: A hot summer does not automatically mean a mild winter. In the assumed heat wave (HW) year, a cold winter also occurs, requiring higher installed district heating capacity—particularly through heat pumps—compared to the normal year (NY) scenario.

3. Hydrogen

• Full Self-Sufficiency in Hydrogen: The hydrogen energy balance achieves a 100% self-sufficiency rate.
• Price-Dependent Operation: The operation of the electrolyzer and H₂ storage is closely linked to electricity prices.
• Low vs. High Electricity Price Scenarios
  • At low electricity prices, the electrolyzer covers the base H₂ demand, and excess hydrogen is stored in the H₂ storage system. 
  • At high electricity prices, stored hydrogen is used to meet the base H₂ demand.

Land Use, climate resilience

South Westphalia´s forests (51% cover, 57% spruce) face a crisis driven by historical overuse, plantation management, pollution (S/N deposition causing soil acidification), drainage, and climate change-induced storms/fires. Clear-cutting and damaged wood removal exacerbate stress. Since 2017, forests emit CO₂/N₂O instead of storing carbon. Wind energy expansion adds pressure, with each turbine requiring ~0.6 ha, causing land loss and stress beyond cleared areas.

Forest restoration and energy transition integration present a dual climate protection task. Scenarios include removing drainage systems, reforesting calamity areas, converting to permanent forests, increasing forest cover, and constructing/operating wind turbines for CO₂ savings. Additional measures focus on carbon enrichment along forest edges. These are the conclusions after the modelling:

Integrated Mitigation Pathway for South Westphalia

The pathway combines energy, land use/forest, and transport models into a coherent, cross-sectoral transition strategy, proving that climate neutrality by 2045 is achievable through regionally adapted measures:

• Expanding renewable energy in synergy with climate-resilient forestry,
• Electrifying heating and transport, and
• Improving inter-modal mobility without disruptive interventions. This positions South Westphalia as a climate-smart industrial region, balancing economic competitiveness, ecological integrity, and social acceptance.

Relevance for Local Climate Programs

The pathway provides municipalities and counties with a scientifically grounded framework to:

• Integrate energy, mobility, and land-use policies into local climate action plans,
• Quantify key indicators (renewable potential, CO₂ storage capacity, mobility emission reductions), and
• Include forest carbon sequestration and energy system interactions in climate accounting for the first time. It fosters a shared regional vision that complements local plans and enables coordinated, cross-border implementation.

Stakeholder Perspective: Value & Open Questions

Perceived Value:

• A unifying strategy linking scientific modeling with practical policy development,
• A realistic, non-disruptive route to climate neutrality,
• Mutually reinforcing benefits: improved mobility, energy independence, and forest restoration as pillars of a sustainable regional identity,
• Business orientation: Clarifies transformation needs and green market opportunities,
• Policy support: Evidence-based foundation for governance.

Open Questions:

• How to ensure institutional continuity of modeling frameworks and stakeholder access post-KNOWING?
• How to operationalize the pathway in formal climate programs and funding mechanisms?
• How to strengthen inter-municipal cooperation for infrastructure, grid, and data challenges?

Agreed Actions & Milestones

• Institutionalization: Energy4Climate NRW will take over the KNOWING Local Hub, ensuring ongoing access to scientific and participatory tools.
• South Westphalia Future Congress (Summer 2026): Main platform to communicate the pathway, mobilize partnerships, and present implementation roadmaps to political leaders and the public.
• Follow-up validation meetings: Integration of results into regional and district-level climate plans, with potential replication in other NRW (North-Rhine Westphalia, federal state) regions.
• Transition from research to governance: The pathway becomes a living regional process for achieving climate neutrality.

Summary of South Westphalia´s exploitation plans following the Climate Mitigation Pathway development

In the aftermath of the Pathway seminar, opportunities for local implementation of the pathway and exploitation were established in the SWF local hub.

Key Takeaways

• SequOIA-CAM - Sequestration Optimization Interface for Afforestation and Carbon Accounting Monitoring solution
• Impact Shopfloor ("Wirkungswerkstatt") - capacity building services offer utilizing KNOWING Climate Activation & Empowerment Services, esp. Playful Trainings and Shape Your Future App
• Online Factsheet - transparent tool accompanying project development, permitting, construction and implementation of wind-in-forest projects
• MoKIVerM - AI-supported Mobility Transition through Traffic Crisis Management 

All exploitation projects aim to bridge the gap between modeling results and practical implementation, ensuring scalability for regions with similar challenges.

Hier ist die Tabelle im A4-Portrait-Format mit den Kategorien als Titelspalte und den vier Exploitations als weitere Spalten: